In our latest investment outlook webinar, Chief Investment Officer John Apruzzese and Partners Brian Pollak and Charlie Ryan shared our views on the current economic uncertainty and market volatility, along with strategies for meeting long-term wealth goals.

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If you would like to view the replay, please contact us at wealthmanagement@evercore.com.

The sweeping tariffs announced last Wednesday are more significant than expected, a tenfold effective increase to the highest rates in a century. With the likelihood of recession on the rise, we see value in diversification, as fixed income and private markets, especially private credit and private equity, become increasingly appealing.

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Click here to view our latest market update.

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Please contact us at wealthmanagement@evercore.com if you would like to learn more.

The latest edition of Independent Thinking, published by Evercore Wealth Management and Evercore Trust Company, is now out. 

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The Magnificent Seven technology giants are arguably the most powerful companies ever built. And they continue to grow, outpacing the S&P 500. Is all this too much of a good thing? Can valuations remain at current levels much longer? How can

investors balance exposure to these companies with developing opportunities in the broader market? 

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In addition to market concentration, we also consider several wealth planning topics in this issue, notably the reasons to appoint a corporate trustee, best practices for transferring wealth to the next generations, and considerations in selecting a

charitable gifting vehicle. Click here to read our full publication. 

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Please contact the editor of Independent Thinking, Aline Sullivan, with any questions or comments at aline.sullivan@evercore.com.

Strong corporate earnings, confident consumers, a stable labor market, and tempered inflation continue to drive U.S. markets. Valuations are high, however, and we expect more volatility and more muted returns in 2025. We are focused on

structuring client portfolios for a range of outcomes and rebalancing as needed to meet long-term financial goals. 

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Click here to view our Q4 2024 Market Review & Outlook.

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Please contact us at wealthmanagement@evercore.com  if you would like to learn more.

The latest edition of Independent Thinking, published by Evercore Wealth Management and Evercore Trust Company, is now out.

We cover a wide range of subjects in this issue. But they all serve as a reminder that change is inevitable. From technology to the ebbs and flows of economies and markets to changes in government and policy and, of course, to individual journeys through life, change is always in the air. It is our job to help our clients and their families prepare for – and prosper through – that change. Click here to read our full publication.

Please contact the editor of Independent Thinking, Aline Sullivan, with any questions or comments at aline.sullivan@evercore.com.

The S&P 500 Index is up 15.3% for the year to date through June 30, 2024, thanks in large part to continued outperformance of Big Tech.

High quality bonds were relatively flat and more credit-sensitive fixed income rose modestly. The U.S. economy remains on solid footing, with continued low unemployment and easing inflation. Clearly, the capital markets are driven by inflation rates, productivity and economic growth, and valuations – and not by politics.

Click here to view our Q2 Market Review& Outlook.

Please contact us at wealthmanagement@evercore.com  if you would like to learn more.

Divorce, no matter how amicable, is a  time of considerable reassessment and change. Judy Moses, Partner and  Portfolio Manager, and Neza Gallitano, Wealth & Fiduciary Advisor,  describe how they work with clients pre- and post-divorce, to build new and sustainable lives.

The latest edition of Independent Thinking, published by Evercore Wealth Management and Evercore Trust Company,is now out.

Our focus is on the seeming dissonance between the grim news so far this year and the S&P 500 index and other asset classes remaining reasonably steady. We also consider opportunities in the secondary markets. See also articles on wealth planning and investing around divorce and planning needs of complex multinational families. Click here to read our full publication.

Please contact the editor of Independent Thinking, Aline Sullivan, with any questions or comments at aline.sullivan@evercore.com.

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The latest edition of Independent Thinking, published by Evercore Wealth Management and Evercore Trust Company, is now out.

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Our focus is on staying calm in all political and market conditions, with article topics ranging from the U.S. deficit and China’s rising debt load to end-of-year and 2024 wealth planning and the joys and responsibility of managing the transfer of special assets. See also articles on navigating

executive compensation plans and the municipal bond market. Click here to read our full publication.

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Please contact the editor of Independent Thinking, Aline Sullivan, with any questions or comments at aline.sullivan@evercore.com.

Several legislative and regulatory updates that may be worth considering this year, in the context of overall wealth planning goals.

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For instance, the SECURE 2.0 Act included adjustments to required minimum distributions and qualified charitable distributions. In addition, guidance issued by the IRS addressed estate tax portability elections, and a recent tax court opinion highlighted the importance of careful planning

and timing of charitable contributions ahead of a liquidity event.

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Please contact wealthmanagement@evercore.com  if you would like to learn more about our 2023 Year-End Wealth Planning Review, our annual guide, to highlight potential opportunities and strategies ahead of planning discussions with our clients.

The latest edition of Independent Thinking, published by Evercore Wealth Management and Evercore Trust Company, is now out.

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Our focus here is on the secrets of successful families in transferring wealth to children and grandchildren. We also look at the potential implications of changing demographics, globally and in the United States. See also articles on stress testing estate plans and managing through periods

of high inflation. Click here to read our full publication.

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Please contact the editor of Independent Thinking, Aline Sullivan, with any questions or comments at aline.sullivan@evercore.com.

John Apruzzese, Chief Investment Officer, and Partners and Portfolio Managers Tim Evnin and Charlie Ryan, discussed our market outlook, including a special focus on equities.

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Please email wealthmanagement@evercore.com  if you would like to view the recording.

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The latest edition of Independent Thinking, published by Evercore Wealth Management and Evercore Trust Company, is now out.

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We address asset allocation in a changing investment landscape, and we discuss three aspects of strategic wealth planning: pre-transaction planning for business owners contemplating a sale, planning for families in which the fair treatment of members might not mean equal, and succession planning.

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Please contact the editor of Independent Thinking, Aline Sullivan, with any questions or comments at aline.sullivan@evercore.com.

The latest edition of Independent Thinking, published by Evercore Wealth Management and Evercore Trust Company, is now out.

In addition to our investment outlook,we address the strength of the U.S. dollar and its impact on the global economy, approaches to tax loss harvesting, intergenerational wealth planning strategies in a rising – but still relatively low – interest rate environment,and considerations in funding a special needs trust.

Please contact the editor of Independent Thinking, Aline Sullivan, with any questions or comments at aline.sullivan@evercore.com.

Evercore Wealth Management, LLC and Evercore Trust Company, N.A. professionals assemble an extensive annual guide,to highlight potential opportunities and strategies ahead of our end-of-year planning discussions with our clients.

While the major tax proposals that would have impacted high net worth individuals, trusts and estates were not included in the final Inflation Reduction Act, there are still some updates to current federal tax law that may be worth considering in the context of overall wealth planning goals. These include changes to required minimum distributions, qualified charitable distributions, and gift, estate, and generation-skipping tax exemptions.

Please contact wealthmanagement@evercore.com  if you would like to learn more about our 2022 Year-End Wealth Planning Review.

The latest edition of Independent Thinking, published by Evercore Wealth Management and Evercore Trust Company, is now out.

Current economic and market conditions are the focus, including how we assess portfolios using a drawdown analysis. We also discuss thoughtful giving to children and grandchildren, balancing investment and ESG goals, and fiduciary planning for crypto and NFT investments.

Please contact the editor of Independent Thinking, Aline Sullivan, with any questions or comments at aline.sullivan@evercore.com.

Recession, if it comes, could impact portfolios.

The Independent Thinking webinar “Maintaining Equilibrium: The Evercore Wealth Management Investment Outlook” assessed the likelihood of a recession and our positioning across our asset classes, as well as potential opportunities for wealth transfer.

If you would like to listen to the recording, please email Michael Beck at michael.beck@evercore.com.

Interest rates in the United States and other developed countries are sharply higher so far this year as central banks try to combat inflation.

Further rate hikes are likely as inflation, sparked by supply chain disruptions and other consequences of the pandemic, is now further fueled by energy and commodity price increases resulting from the war in Ukraine. While we believe that most of the Fed tightening is already priced into the market, more volatility may still lie ahead.

Click here to download the pdf.

Welcome to the latest edition of Independent Thinking.

As investors weigh the prospect of a longer-than-expected period of inflation and geopolitical uncertainty against otherwise largely solid economic fundamentals and the continued extraordinary successes of American companies, they are concluding that the markets still have some room to run.

We continue to believe that there are significant opportunities in both the public and private markets, as well as risks. We also believe that regular reviews of wealth plans are essential, and that estate and gift taxes are going to rise. These topics and related strategies are also addressed in this issue.

Please contact the editor of Independent Thinking, Aline Sullivan, with any questions or comments at aline.sullivan@evercore.com

2021 was another challenging year on many fronts, with two new COVID variants, related labor market and supply chain shocks, and the highest inflation in decades.

But it was another good year for investors, especially for many of those invested in U.S. stocks. In our recent webinar, Independent Thinking panel: The 2022 Investment Outlook, Evercore Wealth Management CEO Chris Zander and Chief Investment Officer John Apruzzese discuss what forces are powering the market and the investment prospects for the New Year. To view a replay of the broadcast click here. The passcode to view is aGEc+6km,83tx29.

For further information on this event, please contact Aline Sullivan at aline.sullivan@evercore.com  or 203.918.3389.

Welcome to the latest edition of Independent Thinking. 

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We are taking another look at inflation. While we continue to believe the recent spike in inflation will prove transitory, we are always mindful of the associated risks. 

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This edition also includes articles addressing the probable tax legislative outcomes in the context of long-term wealth transfer goals. We also discuss ESG investing in a time of high energy prices, the municipal bond outlook for both New York State and New York City as the leadership changes and an in-depth article on non-charitable purpose trusts. 

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Please contact the editor of Independent Thinking, Aline Sullivan, with any questions or comments at aline.sullivan@evercore.com.

Andrew Cuomo is the second New York governor forced out of office in 15 years, along with two Senate leaders, a state attorney general, an assembly speaker and a state comptroller.

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For bondholders, the transition of power to Kathy Hochul, a politically moderate former member of Congress from Erie County and New York’s lieutenant governor since 2015, shouldn’t be much cause for concern. Ms. Hochul has some important decisions to make, of course. Staffing, managing all the issues associated with the coronavirus pandemic, infrastructure spending, and running for office will likely be top of mind. Here’s a brief summary of each, followed by our outlook for the market: 

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While New York State has an entrenched bureaucracy to assist in maintaining order during this transition, it is unclear whether all state agency heads under Mr. Cuomo will stay on for the remainder of the term. It will be up to Ms. Hochul to decide which members of the current administration are wrapped up in the various controversies that led to Cuomo’s resignation and to staff her administration accordingly. 

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Managing the recent uptick in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations, fueled by the Delta variant, is obviously a huge challenge for the incoming Administration, in whatever form it takes. About 700 school districts – and millions of families – need decisions on masking, testing, quarantining and other safety measures. Reverting to online learning, effectively forcing parents to stay at home, could cause unemployment rates to increase. Funding for additional federal unemployment supplemental payments is not a guarantee and lack of funding could result in another economic slowdown and state budget deficits. At the same time, tenants and landlords are waiting to hear about evictions with the potential for an increase in homelessness during another outbreak and further financial burdens for state and local governments. 

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One of the areas of state operation most heavily influenced by Governor Cuomo was transportation, specifically, from a bond perspective, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, or MTA, which controls the city’s subways and buses, the commuter railroads (the Long Island Rail Road and Metro-North), as well as the Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority. Although the MTA has lost about half of its riders since the pandemic started, emergency federal aid has bolstered the authority against a huge operating deficit. However, budget gaps are on the horizon, as soon as 20251. Fortunately, the state, recognizing the importance of the MTA to the functioning and recovery of the economy, has proven to be very supportive with increased financial resources for both operations and capital expenditures. 

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On a related note, implementing congestion pricing in New York City, which is expected to generate $1 billion a year, is also an issue. The revenue from congestion pricing was meant to help fund the MTA’s $51 billion, five-year capital program. Congestion pricing needs to reasonably maximize revenues while determining possible exemptions to the fee. It remains to be seen if capital priorities under this massive program shift under a new administration, such as extending the Second Avenue Subway, completing the Eastside Access project, or the AirTrain rail connection to LaGuardia Airport. 

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The relationship between Mr. Cuomo and New York City Mayor Bill DeBlasio always seemed particularly adversarial, even by New York standards. New York City needs state approval for most tax reforms or implementing important programmatic changes and a constructive relationship between the incoming governor and Eric Adams, the presumptive new mayor, could result in real benefits for the city, including increased education funding, public housing assistance, financial help for the city run hospital system and more autonomy in determining tax rates, economic development projects and transportation projects. Certainly, Ms. Hochul will be eager to build this and other alliances, especially if she plans to run for governor in her own right. 

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New York State has proven its resiliency time and again. A transition to a new governor, even under these unfortunate circumstances, does not diminish our confidence in the state’s credits. We continue to focus on issues that have a broad revenue base and strong legal pledge such as New York State General Obligation, Personal Income Tax and Sales Tax Bonds, as well as essential purpose revenue systems such as water, sewer and public power issues while being more cautious and selective when it comes to sectors more severely impeded by the pandemic such as transportation bonds (MTA, Port Authority, various toll facilities) and the healthcare sector. 

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Howard Cure is a Partner at Evercore Wealth Management and the Director of Municipal Bond Research. He can be contacted at cure@evercore.com. 

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1 “Light at the Beginning of the Tunnel: What to Look for in the MTA 2021 July Financial Plan” Citizens Budget Commission 7/20/21.

Welcome to the latest edition of Independent Thinking. We focus on rising inflation, which we believe are transitory, and rising taxes, likely to be a longer-term issue. 

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This edition also includes two articles addressing the complex planning concerns of multi-generational and international families with U.S. interests, and the long-term core strengths of traditional trusts. We also discuss our take on sustainable investing – we believe both the intent and impact should be considered. 

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Please contact the editor of Independent Thinking, Aline Sullivan, with any questions or comments at aline.sullivan@evercore.com.

As the economy fully reopens, it is evident we are experiencing a burst of inflation. 

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The outstanding question is – is it transitory or the beginning of an inflationary spiral similar to the 1970’s? Our recent webinar – Inflation: Bark or Bite? The Evercore Wealth Management Investment Outlook Update – discussed the question of inflation, and how to position portfolios in response.

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For more information, please contact Aline Sullivan at aline.sullivan@evercore.com  or 203.918.3389.

New York City will remain a global center for finance, education, healthcare, technology and culture, but not without changes to its prior established position. Investment exposures should be allocated and managed accordingly. 

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To download a copy, click here; if you would like more information about this paper or any of our wealth and investment perspectives, please contact Jay Springer at springer@evercore.com.

Record high asset valuations and record low yields, the prospects for inflation in the wake of $3.9 trillion in U.S. fiscal stimulus, and the likelihood of rising taxes and related planning strategies are all topics addressed in the 41st edition of Evercore Wealth Management’s Independent Thinking.

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This edition also includes articles on transition planning for business founder-owners and some thoughts on supporting the arts in this challenging period.

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Please contact the editor of Independent Thinking, Aline Sullivan, with any questions or comments at aline.sullivan@evercore.com.

Evercore Wealth Management’s Chief Executive Officer Chris Zander and Chief Investment Officer John Apruzzese hosted an engaging discussion of the investment risks and opportunities following one of the most tumultuous years in memory.

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To watch the replay of this event, please click here.

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How is the stock market so resilient? That’s one of the questions considered in this second special electronic-only edition of Independent Thinking, the journal of Evercore Wealth Management and Evercore Trust Company.

We explore a number of investment and planning strategies during the continuing COVID-19 pandemic.

Features include Chris Zander’s CEO column, John Apruzzese’s current investment outlook, Jeff Maurer’s perspective on staying prepared in all market conditions and a number of other topical pieces.

Please contact Aline Sullivan, the editor of Independent Thinking, with any questions or comments at aline.sullivan@evercore.com.

It’s a challenging but opportune time for active investors, Evercore Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer John Apruzzese told Barron’s.

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The dominance in the S&P 500 by the big tech stocks is an important consideration in asset allocation and portfolio management. Barron’s subscribers can view the article here.

The New York City small business contingency program is too small to make much of a difference for the surge of businesses suddenly in need as a result of the Covid 19 mandatory shutdowns, said Howard Cure, director of municipal bond research at Evercore Wealth Management, in an interview with the New York Times.

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It’s just so woefully underfunded for the needs of the programs,” Howard said. “The city and the state are facing such huge operating deficits from the impact of the decline in sales tax and, to a lesser extent, a decline in personal income tax, that they’re in no position to expand these programs.

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”For information on bond research at Evercore Wealth Management, please contact us. To view article, click here.

The special edition of Independent Thinking, the journal of Evercore Wealth Management and Evercore Trust Company, focuses on the investment and planning strategies during the Covid-19 pandemic.

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Features include Chris Zander’s first column as CEO, John Apruzzese’s current investment outlook, Jeff Maurer’s take on resilient portfolios, and a number of other topical pieces.

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Please contact Aline Sullivan, the editor of Independent Thinking, with any questions or comments at aline.sullivan@evercore.com.

Staying focused on long-term goals can be challenging in periods of market turmoil. But as Evercore Wealth Management CIO John Apruzzese and Portfolio Managers Tim Evnin and Brian Pollak told clients in a March 17 webinar, good investment portfolios are built to withstand substantial market drawdowns. We continue to review our client portfolios and are weighing new opportunities against continuing risks.

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To access the replay of Keeping Calm in a Market Panic, please click here

Evercore Wealth Management and Evercore Trust Company are prepared in the event that the coronavirus becomes more prevalent.

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At this time our offices are open and we do not expect any disruption in client service.

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Evercore employees are able to work remotely, to take care of themselves, their families, and our clients. Our crisis communication and business continuity plans are frequently and rigorously tested. Our operations team is carefully monitoring the plans of our key vendors and other stakeholders.

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As these continuity plans are activated, we are confident that we will be able to accept and invest funds, monitor accounts and make distributions in a timely and prudent manner.

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Please contact your Evercore advisors for further information on the steps that Evercore is taking to protect clients, employees and others engaged with the firm. We will provide additional communications as circumstances warrant.

As the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus spreads, so does the temptation to blame it for all of the recent changes in market conditions.

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But this bears closer examination. It’s important to distinguish, as best as we can, the probable from the possible, and to position portfolios accordingly. Risks are certainly rising but we remain confident investors, striving to build robust client portfolios able to withstand even severe market fluctuations.

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U.S. equity market valuations had become rich. At over 19x forward earnings, up from 14x in the near bear-market of December 2018 and in the context of relatively modest investor expectations for 2020 corporate revenue and earnings growth, the U.S. stock market had little margin for error as of the recent highs on February 19, 2020. As we stressed in our most recent quarterly update, opportunistic rebalancing is important.

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U.S. bond market yields hover at levels generally unseen since the Great Depression. The yield on the 10-year Treasury closed on February 25 at 1.34%, a near-record low, on concerns of slowing economic growth and persistently low inflation: the curve is now pricing in two full Fed rate cuts in 2020. The yield curve (measured by the difference between the three-month T-Bill and the ten-year Treasury) is again inverted, a leading indicator of recession. It is important to note that other U.S. economic data remains positive. Unemployment remains near historic lows, productivity growth is rising, and inflation remains low.

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China’s economy continues to slow. Deteriorating conditions in the world’s second largest economy and the – by far – largest driver of global growth have been clear for years. Economic growth, while still robust by global standards, continues to decline. The coronavirus will not help: some current estimates are that China’s GDP growth could stall or even be negative for a quarter or two, although of course no one really yet knows. But the China slowdown itself has been weighing on global investors for some time.

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Feeling the Bern. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders’ convincing weekend victory in Nevada (the most diverse state to hold a caucus or primary so far) has made the self-described democratic socialist the odds-on frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. The market had previously underpriced the likelihood of a Sanders nomination and even further discounted a victory in the general election, but his successes are forcing a rethink. The policy differences between President Trump and Senator Sanders is stark and will create significant policy uncertainty.

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Risk is rising. No one knows yet how this virus will develop. The possible impact on China and elsewhere is potentially extremely serious, with worst-case scenarios including social and political upheaval and worsening damage to supply chains and consumer demand that could lead to a full-blown recession in China and other markets, including the United States. And of course, no one really knows what will happen in the U.S. election.

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It is our view that a pullback of 10%+ in the S&P 500 from the all-time high it reached on February 19 will prove positive for the long-term health of the market, allowing stock valuations to reconnect with their underlying fundamentals and encouraging investment. As of today’s close the market is down 7.6% from the high, and we believe the above outcome is much more likely than the 20% plus decline that would represent a bear market and suggest recession.

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We will be monitoring these and other events closely to assess their true impact on economic growth and corporate earnings. We continue to invest with confidence, rebalancing portfolio weightings and ensuring that individual portfolios are appropriately diversified, according to each client’s risk profile, while also looking out for potential opportunities that indiscriminate sell-offs often provide.

The stock component of executive compensation and many transactions has grown with market appreciation, Evercore Wealth Management CEO Chris Zander said in an interview with Citywealth.